AJ Schnack has written a great post on the so-called “doc depression”. And no, we’re not talking about the emotional trauma that follows a screening of Lake Of Fire--though “depressing” documentaries likely have something to do with it, this depression is purely financial.

Only three nonfiction films are on track to gross a million dollars or more this year, making it the slowest year for documentary box office since 2001. There are are lot of potential factors–the always handy Iraq/political fatigue; the fact that studios and their indie arms are mainly distributing docs with name-brand directors (which, if you take Man From Plains‘ opening weekend as evidence, are less than safe bets); the unfortunate reality that docs that are winning awards at festivals are not getting picked up by powerful distributors, and thus, if they’re entering the marketplace at all, they’re relying on grassroots promotions to slowly build a successful run–but I think AJ’s really on to something when he cites the logjam that has become the fall release schedule:

So, in addition to fighting for screen space amongst other docs (and even docs that are “technically” in release but are screening to empty theaters in order to qualify for the Oscars under this year’s now-rejected roll-out requirements), nonfiction films are competing amongst some of the biggest indie/art house films of the year. Instead of opening in the first half of the year (when fewer high profile docs were released than have been this month), everyone decided to squeeze into the last few months of the year, just when all the narrative films are hoping to declare themselves as Oscar bait…One thing’s for sure, filmmakers and distributors should be thinking twice about going up against studio’s Oscar hopefuls. Do you really want to be opening up against THE DARJEELING LIMITED and INTO THE WILD?

Schnack also notes that the majority of recent documentary success stories began earlier in the year. Films like Super Size Me, Spellbound, even March of the Penguins opened in the late Spring/early Summer. Schnack wonders if “that’s the fertile time for docs,” and I think there’s something there. Certainly, with something about the environment or a critique of corporate culture–anything that ultimately makes college students feel good about their lifestyle choices–it makes sense to open in May, when your audience is finishing their finals and suddenly find themselves with too much time on their hands.

I’m interested in the role that patience plays in all of this. Schnack cites a number of small, slow-burning successes that were built largely on word-of-mouth. But studios large and small need extraordinary evidence to be willing to let a film grow slowly. An Inconvenient Truth crossed the million dollar mark in its second weekend, when it expanded to 77 screens, which is a remarkably wide release for a documentary in its second week. Its widest release was 570 screens, but it didn’t get there until eight full weeks into its 23 week release. It never grossed enough in a weekend to hit the Top 10 after that second weekend, but that was enough for Paramount to stick with it for a long, slow run. It eventually made $24 million slowly but steadily, by playing in both art houses and multiplexes, for half a year. Audiences found the film, and continued to find it through its run, through a potent combination of word-of-mouth, publicity, and the spoils afforded by Paramount’s marketing budget.

In contrast, No End in Sight, this year’s biggest indie doc success thus far, has had an extremely limited theatrical run. It never expanded beyond 117 screens, and at 13 weeks into release, it’s down to just 11 theaters. Whether or not you believe director Charles Ferguson’s claims that his film was boycotted by Bush-scared press outlets (for what it’s worth, we tried to interview him for this episode of FilmCouch, but our request was denied), it’s probably safe to assume that Magnolia was not able to fund a wide-spread publicity blitz on behalf of the film, so when word-of-mouth alone didn’t spark huge per screen averages right away, the studio cut their losses. And still Ferguson’s film has had one of the longest and widest runs of any documentary film this year.

The ultimate takeaway is that, in this climate, just like a narrative feature, a documentary can’t afford to not open big. And if it pulls off a solid first weekend early in the year, chances seem higher that its distributor will stand by it for a longer period of time.