Amy Ryan has snagged at least five awards in the past four business days (I lost count after the NBR, New York critics, LA critics, DC critics and San Francisco critics) for her work in Ben Affleck’s Gone Baby Gone, and has thus usurped Cate Blanchett as the presumptive frontrunner in the Best Supporting Actress Oscar race. This is, to me, a fairly shocking turn of events, and judging by the noise it’s creating amongst Oscar bloggers, I’m not totally alone in my surprise.

It doesn’t help that Todd Haynes’ I’m Not There––the film that prompted Harvey Weinstein to promise to shoot himself if it didn’t net Blanchett an Oscar nomination––has been all but shut out of the critical derby thus far. I was particularly surprised to see the film earn nary a nod from the New York Film Critics Circle–it certainly has no shortage of local, effusive defenders. And yet, the film has sort of slunk into the shadows of the season. Putting Harvey’s silly, trigger-happy bravado aside, it’s no secret that The Weinstein Company is hurting for hits, and so far, There is part of the problem; still on less than 150 screens and consistently dropping 30% from weekend to weekend, I don’t see how the distributor will be able to justify any kind of expansion unless there’s a major, major reversal in awards momentum.

The question is: where’s the loudest man in pseudo-indie distribution when his films really need him?

The fact is, aside from announcing his engagement to fashion designer Georgina Chapman last month, H. Weinstein has been all but silent on the subject of the lackluster showing of his fall, awards bait films, leaving most of the quote duty to brother Bob and colleagues. In fact, I can’t find a single quote from Harvey concerning the performance of TWC’s Oscar hopefuls since this NY Times story from two months back––wherein, as I noted at the time, he failed to even namedrop Haynes’ film or Blanchett’s performance. Considering that three festival hits (I’m Not There, Control, and now Grace is Gone) have failed to crossover under his watch in the last three months, his silence is conspicuous.

Of course, it’s possible that Blanchett’s slide from the critical spotlight is just an accident of timing. She’s done more press for the film than any of the other five Dylans, but the fact remains that at festivals like Toronto, Blanchett was focused on pumping the dead-on-arrival Elizabeth: The Golden Age (which is, you know, terrible, but compared to I’m Not There, it really is a lot more fun). Meanwhile, both of Ryan’s fall films (she’s getting notice for a small part in Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead as well as the more substantial role in Gone Baby Gone) are still very much on the awards radar. Still: I think the old Harvey would have taken a break from wedding planning to cause a ruckus.