Warner Bros.’ surprise decision last week to move Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince from November to next July caused quite a stir. Fans were upset. Entertainment Weekly was embarrassed. The only people not bothered seemed to be the Twilight crowd, who benefited in the release date jumble when their anticipated adaptation moved up its opening to fill the vacancy.

But why did the studio suddenly push back its major fall tent pole? Especially after receiving such favorable buzz surrounding its recently unveiled teaser trailer? Warner’s official statement seemed little more than a “just because” stance. So, ever the skeptic and speculator, I’ve compiled this list of more likely excuses:

10. Equus - My first thought after hearing the news was that Harry Potter’s penis was the cause. And I guess I think like Roger Friedman, who is claiming it’s the truth. Of course, unlike Friedman, I don’t really believe there’s any relation between the date change and the fact that Radcliffe will still be appearing nude on Broadway through the fall movie season (Equus runs from September 25 to February 8). If anything, I think it’d help the release of Half-Blood — what vacationing family in NYC wouldn’t want to make it a double feature over Thanksgiving weekend? First watch your kid march in the Macy’s parade, then head over to the Broadhurst Theatre to see Potter’s wand, and finish up the day with a movie screening at the Ziegfeld. OK, so families are apparently more interested in the Billy Elliot musical. And according to a quote in the new EW, Potter fans might be able to hold out for a nude Radcliffe in Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 2.

9. Less of a wait for Deathly Hallows - With Half-Blood Prince now opening in 2009, there’s less time between that film and the next installment, the first part of Deathly Hallows, which bows in 2010 (specifically November 19, 2010) Of course, the push has still left fans with a two-year Potter drought, as there has been no new book or movie since July 2007. Will those two years make fans anticipate the film more, or will it lead them to forget about the boy wizard and move on to boy vampires?

8. Twilight madness - One rumor floating around is that Warner Bros. was scared of Twilight, particularly after the Comic-Con panel, which was met with an overwhelming volume of screaming fans. Originally, the vampire movie was slated to open three weeks after Harry Potter, and fantasy favoring teens would have likely moved onto Twilight rather than seeing Half-Blood Prince again. However, it’s just as likely that Warner saw bigger competition from:

7. Disney’s Bolt - Personally, I think Twilight is going to bomb, or at least perform unsatisfactorily. I’d be willing to bet the animated film Bolt, which was originally to open 5 days after Half-Blood, is more successful. And now that both Twilight and Bolt have jointly taken Harry Potter’s spot, I get to actually watch as kids choose the latter, with its Miley Cyrus-voiced character, over the cheesy, mushy vampire movie. I don’t think Bolt could have bettered Harry Potter, though, so Warner likely wasn’t scared away by the little animated dog.

6. Midnight shows - Some kids have pointed out that with a summer release they’re more likely to be able to attend a midnight screening on the eve of Half-Blood’s opening. Other kids have pointed out that their parents are cool enough to allow them to stay up late on a school night for Harry Potter mania. Meanwhile, I’d like to point out that my dad could beat up all those kids’ dads.

5. Re-shooting for Darker content - As its Dark Knight keeps on reeling in the dough, Warner Bros. may be interested in making other tent poles as dark as the highly acclaimed and highly successful Batman sequel. So, rather than appeasing the kiddies with more accessible midnight shows, the studio might want to appease more of the older folk by adding in some harder content (in one new scene, Potter shows us how to make his wand disappear). It would make sense, since most of the original Potter fans are now adults. And like Anne Thompson, I’d be much more interested in seeing an R-rated Potter installment (though she means because Billy Elliot was rated R). Then again, from what I hear, the last two books are plenty dark without need for rewrites and re-shoots. Maybe not enough to get an R-rating, but I doubt any WB execs would honestly think that’s a good idea anyway.

4. After effects of the Writer’s Strike - Although the WGA strike now seems like it happened ages ago, its effects will still be felt next summer, when the blockbuster season is expected to be lacking in big movies that could have been scripted were it not for the writing hiatus. But if you actually look at next summer’s crop of releases, you’ll notice there’s actually some major tent poles, even in July, when Harry Potter will be rounding out the peak of the season against such worthy competitors as Roland Emmerich’s sci-fi flick 2012, which opens the weekend before, and Jerry Bruckheimer’s family film G-Force, which opens the weekend after. Plus, the little kids will still be excited for Ice Age 3 (in 3-D), out two weeks earlier, and the big kids will still be into Transformers 2, arriving three weeks earlier. Warner Bros. head Alan Horn was correct that Half-Blood Prince “perfectly fills the gap for a major tent pole release for mid-summer,” but that’s not a good enough motive to suddenly hold a highly anticipated movie for another eight months, especially when it leaves a similar gap in the holiday season.

3. In-house finances - Then again, Warner Bros. may have seen a tent pole lack in-house rather than in general. Now, in the event that R-rated blockbusters Watchmen and Terminator Salvation aren’t huge moneymakers, the studio has Harry to fall back on. And with The Dark Knight making the company enough dough for 2008, it makes sense for the WB to balance out its expectant profit-makers. I’ve also seen it explained as having to do with not paying as much in taxes for this fiscal year, but whatever the specific reason, it seems probable that it’s an in-house financial strategy.

2. The last Potter was huge in the summer - 2007’s Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix had the worst opening weekend of the franchise, yet it went on to earn the second highest gross of the series, with only the first film, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone, performing better domestically and worldwide. Plenty of people have noted that the three fall-opening installments average out better than the two summer openers, but that’s only because of the monumental success of part one. Logically, though, to open the movie in mid July, as Warner Bros. did with Order of the Phoenix, means it will easily have longer legs, able to perform well on weekdays for another 5-6 weeks of vacation before school starts. Opening around Thanksgiving is good for a strong debut, but then within a month the box office drops due to school, a crowded movie season and other holiday-minded priorities.

1. Warner Bros. hates the fans - Obviously the true reason for the delay is to piss off Harry Potter fans. But fortunately, the fans are striking back … with three online petitions (one at iPetitions; two at PetitionSpot). And so far, more than 34,000 outraged Potterheads have signed in protest of the release date change (I’m counting the largest one of the two at PetitionSpot as the only noteworthy). Unfortunately, most of the signers are probably like #34,196, Catherine Blencowe, who adds to the basic “I support this petition” these words: “If I actually thought I could, I would say that I will boycott the movie, but alas I’m too hooked.” Warner Bros. may hate the fans, but the fans will never hate Warner Bros. more than they love Harry.