The screenplay for Milk was that film’s only shortcoming. I’d give a nom to In Bruges, Burn After Reading, Synecdoche NY, or a half-dozen other films before I’d give one to Black for writing a solid — but very average — screenplay.

2009 predictions

These may be a little out there but the academy usually always has a few big surprises

Best Picture

The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
The Wrestler
WALLE

Yes Benjamin Button is missing. But I think it is this year’s Dream Girls, a film that has only gotten its previous nominations from ridiculous hype. There are too many in the academy that will be disappointed by the film. The Wrestler, on the other hand is the real deal. No one who has seen it has been unmoved. WALLE is the animated film that can go the distance. It transcends its genre and more than any other Pixar film is being seen as a true work of art.

Best Director

Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight)
Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler)
Gus Van Sant (Milk)
Arnaud Desplechin (A Christmas Tale)

Sorry, it’s not Fincher’s year. That was last year with Zodiac and the academy missed out. I still don’t see how he has a chance. Benjamin Button was too much of a mess for enough sympathy votes. It’s actually Boyle, Aronofsky, Nolan, and Van Sant’s year. They all turned out (what many agree) are their finest films to date. And I know Desplechin is an out there pick but those few who have seen A Christmas Tale will surely agree. It has topped an impressive amount of critics’ lists. There is usually a room for a great film that is ineligible for best Foreign film (Letters From Iwo Jima, Talk To Her, Amélie, Vera Drake, Pan’s Labyrinth, Diving Bell and the Butterfly, City of God, and Cache)

Original Screenplay

Charlie Kauffman (Synecdoche, New York)
Dustin Lance Black (Milk)
Jenny Lumet (Rachel Getting Married)
Roger Segal (The Wrestler)
Mike Leigh (Happy Go Lucky)

Woody Allen’s screenplay for Vicky Cristina Barcelona was a big disappointment to many (Narrator, anyone?). Much of the films success was due to the scenery and the outstanding work of the cast. WALLE, of course, is a masterpiece, but with so little dialogue, it could easily be left out. It’s such a crowded category that The Coen Brothers (Burn after Reading), Arnaud Desplechin (A Christmas Tale), and Martin McDonagh (In Bruges) will be the unfortunate casualties. I think that Kauffman has just enough ardent supporters for Synecdoche, New York to get a nod. Unfortunately, Ari Folman’s Waltz with Bashir will be dismissed as a documentary screenplay. IT’S STILL A SCREENPLAY!!

Adapted Screenplay

Jonathan Nolan & Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight)
Peter Morgan (Frost Nixon)
Simon Beaufoy (Slumdog Millionaire)
John Patrick Stanley (Doubt)
Laurent Cantet (The Class)

Eric Roth’s script for Benjamin Button seems to be adapted more from his own Forrest Gump than F. Scott FitzGerald’s short story. The academy should see how much of a mess it really is. Being a weak category this year there shouldn’t be any surprises here other than Cantet’s The Class, which is a shoe in to win Best Foreign Film. It should garner enough love to go the extra mile.

Best Actor

Brendan Gleason (In Burge)
Sean Penn (Milk)
Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
Frank Langella (Frost Nixon)
Richard Jenkins (The Visitor)

I don’t see how Brad Pitt has gotten any buzz at all. Many are confusing his performance with the accomplishments of CGI and Makeup. And even awards shows are getting tired of Clint Eastwood. Dicaprio’s performance in Revolutionary Road was good but not good enough for another nod. This leaves a spot open for Benicio Del Toro for Che, but let’s be honest, a tiny fraction will muster up the nerve to sit through it. That’s why I think Gleason has a more that worthy shot (like Laura Linney last year). The fans of the film will try to get it nominated in any category they can and this seems the most likely one.

Best Actress

Meryl Streep (Doubt)
Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
Sally Hawkins (Happy Go Lucky)
Kirstin Scott Thomas (I’ve Loved You for So Long)
Melissa Leo (Frozen River)

Although Winslet won the Golden Globe, her chances at an Oscar nod are still slim. The main reason why she won is due to her multiple losses. The Globes wanted a Susan Lucci moment. Also Revolutionary Road’s buzz has dwindled significantly with mixed reviews and her performance in it has very little champions. Too bad Michele Williams will be overlooked simply because not enough have seen Wendy and Lucy. If Jolie gets a nod, it will not be for this year’s performance, but for last year’s.

Best Supporting Actor

Heath Leger (The Dark Knight)
Josh Brolin (Milk)
Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder)
Dev Petal (Slumdog Millionaire)
Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road)

Another predictable race with the strong possibility of an omitted P.S. Hoffman. His performance may have been up to par with everyone else in the cast, except he has not had the praise. His previous nominations have mostly been part the Doubt Oscar train. Many academy members could just forget to include him. It seems that Michael Shannon has the better chance with his few fierily scenes in Revolutionary Road, that had everyone talking.

Best Supporting Actress

Penélope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
Viola Davis (Doubt)
Kate Winslet (The Reader)
Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)
Rosemarie Dewitt (Rachel Getting Married)

The only real upset should be Dewitt, who has won almost every critics award, and has yet to be nominated for a major award (possibility of too many breakthroughs at one time). Her performance has plenty of ardent supporters who should secure the nod. The breakthrough performance that could get the boot is Taraj P. Henson, one of the few things good about Benjamin Button, may be deemed as too much of a stereotype by many.

It’s funny the day before yesterday I started predicting what the BEST PICTURE-nominies were and I came out with excextly the same results.

I dont understand how In Bruges can get a few GG noms and a win for Colin but not even make it onto your list in any way for the oscars. Does that happen regularly, i dont really follow the GG’s normally so if youre right that would be a shame.

Well, personally i figure “The Dark Knight” is well-deserved to score the most Oscar nominations this year including Best Picture, Best Director (Christopher Nolan), Best Original Screenplay, Best Music Score, Best Film Editing, Best Makeup, Best Special Effects, Best Sound and of course a definite lock for the late Heath Ledger to secure that Best Supporting Actor win! I know “Slumdog Millionaire” has been received such an overwhelmingly great response from both critics and various award circles, plus that movie made a splash in the recent Globes. But seriously, other than that movie being a great feel-good entertainment, I don’t really think it’s truly deserved to win the coveted Best Picture.

@Anthony88

As much as I like your list of potential Best Pic noms, I have to strenuously disagree with the inclusion of Wall-E. Despite the fact that I think it’s the best movie of 2008, there is NO way it’ll get nom’d. To my way of thinking, half the reason the Best Animated Feature category was even invented was to ghetto-ize animation into its own category so it wouldn’t sully the image of the “real” films. Again, this is not my opinion, but I can’t see how any thinking other than that went into it. Pretty sure that the Academy voters don’t actually want another Beauty & The Beast year. It’s lip service only for animation, folks.

Best Picture:
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millioniare
Milk
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon

Possible Upset: Gran Torino, Wall-E, Doubt, Revolutionary Road, The Reader

Best Director:
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Danny Boyle Slumdog Millioniare
Gus Van Sant, Milk
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon

Possible Upset: Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino

Best Actor:
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Sean Penn, Milk

Possible Upset: Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road, Richard Jenkins, The Visitor, Benicio Del Toro, Che

Best Actress
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Sally Hawkins, Happy Go Lucky
Meryl Streep, Doubt

Possible Upset: Kristen Scott Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long, Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Dav Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

Possible Upsets: James Franco, Milk, Gary Oldman, The Dark Knight, Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road, Michael Sheen, Frost/Nixon

Best Supporting Actress:
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Amy Adams, Doubt

Possible Upsets: Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
Frost/Nixon
Doubt

Possible Upsets; Nick and Norra’s Infinite Playlist

Best Original Screenplay
Milk
Wall-E
Tropic Thunder
The Wrestler
Burn After Reading

Possible Upset: Vicky Christina Barcelona

picture:
THE DARK KNIGHT
MILK
THE READER
REVOLUCIONARY ROAD
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

director
WOODY ALLEN
DANNY BOYLE
DAVID FINCHER
SAM MENDES
STEPHEN DALRY

actor
CLINT EASTWOOD
LEONARDO DICAPRIO
FRANK LANGELLA
SEAN PENN
MICKEY ROURKE

actress
ANN HATHAWAY
SALLY HAWKINS
MELISSA LEO
MERYL STREEP
KATE WINSLET

supporting actor
JOSH BROLIN
HEATH LEDGER
PHILIP S. HOFFMAN
JAMES FRANCO
MICHAEL SHANNON

supporting actress
AMY ADAMS
PENELOPE CRUZ
VIOLA DAVIS
MARRISA TOMEI
KATE WINSLET

No Synecdoche? thats criminal.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Director
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus van Sant, Milk
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Best Original Screenplay
Burn After Reading
Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Christina Barcelona

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Here are my Oscar Predictions

Best Picture

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionare
Doubt

THE FILM I’D LOVE TO SEE NOMINATED: Vicky Cristina Barcelona

BEST DIRECTOR

David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionare
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Gus van Sant - Milk

THE NOMINEE I’D LOVE TO SEE: Mike Leigh - Happy-Go-Lucky

BEST ACTOR
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
Sean Penn - Milk
Leonardo di Caprio - Revolutionary Road

THE NOMINEE I’D LOVE TO SEE: Michael Pitt - Funny Games

BEST ACTRESS
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Kristin Scott Thomas - I’ve Loved You So Long

THE NOMINEE I’D LOVE TO SEE: Rebecca Hall - Vicky Cristina Barcelona

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road
Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionare
Josh Brolin - Milk

THE NOMINEE I’D LOVE TO SEE: Eddie Marsan - Happy-Go-Lucky

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Kate Winslet - The Reader
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Amy Adams - Doubt
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler

THE NOMINEE I’D LOVE TO SEE: Marcia Gay Harden for The Mist

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Woody Allen - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Jenny Lumet - Rachel Getting Married
Ari Folman - Waltz with Bashir
Mike Leigh - Happy-Go-Lucky
Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon - WALL-E

THE NOMINEE I’D LOVE TO SEE: Robert Siegel - The Wrestler

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Eric Roth, Robin Swicord - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Simon Beaufoy - Slumdog Millionare
Peter Morgan - Frost/Nixon
John Patrick Shanley - Doubt
Christopher Nolan, Jonathon Nolan, David S. Goyer - The Dark Knight

THE NOMINEE I’D LOVE TO SEE: Frank Darabont - The Mist

hehe. woooooo! Love GuruUuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuU!

YEEEAAAH!

I agree with most of your pics, but I would be hard pressed to believe that Gran Torino will not sneak in the Picture or Direction category. Yes, they will give him an actor nod, but the Academy loves his work. I expect either The Dark Knight or Christopher Nolan to be nominated, but not both. The other will be Gran Torino.

Clint Eastwood will win the oscar for best actor with Gran Torino.

my predictions for best actress:

Cate Blanchett (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Merryl Streep (Doubt)
Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)
Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky)

Possible upsets: Kristin Scott Thomas (I’ve Loved You So Long); Angelina Jolie (Changeling); Melissa Leo (Frozen River); Kate Beckinsale; Michelle Williams

Because 2008 was a crappy year for movies (Revolutionary Road? Really?), the only thing that would make me happy is if Wall-e were nominated for best picture (I guess I’d probably be content if Synecdoche won anything at all).

It’s a bit depressing how some of these best picture contenders are pretty darned flawed movies. i guess this wasn’t a groundbreaking year for film.

My best picture predictions with a pinch of wishful thinking:

Slumdog Millionaire
- feel-good, beautifully shot, exotic to the average viewer, has already gotten lots of kudos.
Milk
- very moving, historical, relevant to current events, tragic, i cried like a little schoolboy.
The Wrestler
- simple story, a fantastic lead, great direction, better than revolutionary road.
Frost/Nixon
- american history, intense frank langella, ISSUES the academy loves, the ‘good night and good luck’ nom of the year.
Doubt
- i just threw this in. i have no desire to see it because i was lucky enough to see the play and it was incredible. but again it has touchy issues the academy likes, plus meryl streep in a habit. frost/nixon seems the better of the two play adaptations. one play i wouldn’t mind seeing as a movie is ‘The Goat, or Who is Sylvia?’ OH YES.

closing thoughts: dear god, please don’t let revolutionary road get a best picture nod.

I LIKE HOW EVERYONE IS TALKING ABOUT SUCKING DICK ON THE DARK KNIGHT WHEN EVERYONE IS SUCKING DICK ON SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE. THAT MOVIE WAS JUST A FEEL GOOD MOVIE THAT PEOPLE WON’T REMEMBER FOR YEARS TO COME. CITY OF GOD WAS A GOOD FILM AND IT WAS NOT NOMINATED. SO WHY THE HELL IS THIS MOVIE GOING TO WIN EVERYTHING WHEN IT SHOUDN’T.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY — SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Frost/Nixon

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — WALL-E
In Bruges
Milk
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
The Wrestler

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS — MARISA TOMEI (THE WRESTLER)
Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Amy Adams (Doubt)
Viola Davis (Doubt)
Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR — HEATH LEDGER (THE DARK KNIGHT)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt)
Josh Brolin (Milk)
Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road)
Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder)

BEST ACTRESS — MERYL STREEP (DOUBT)
Angelina Jolie (Changeling)
Cate Blanchett (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
Kate Winslet (The Reader)

BEST ACTOR — MICKEY ROURKE (THE WRESTLER)
Brad Pitt (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Christian Bale (The Dark Knight)
Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)
Sean Penn (Milk)

BEST DIRECTOR — DANNY BOYLE (SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE)
David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight)
Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon)
Gus Van Sant (Milk)

BEST ANIMATED PICTURE — WALL-E
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda

BEST PICTURE — DOUBT
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire