Just how much money will the new Star Trek movie make? That’s a question a lot of people are asking today, as we enter the reboot’s opening weekend with favorable reviews and a successful Thursday night (estimates show it made $7 million from advance screenings). Here’s how I put it into perspective: the only Trek installment I ever saw in the theater is Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home, which is the only film in the franchise to gross more than $100 million. And now I’m planning to see J.J. Abrams’ movie, at least to see if it’s actually that much better and cooler than the rest of the franchise. And I think there are a lot of other people out there who are just as curious as I am.

That people are predicting this thing to make nearly as much money in its first week as Voyage Home earned in total should be more ridiculous an idea than it is. However, rebooted franchises, like Halloween and Friday the 13th have previously surprised us with relatively huge openings, so it’s not terribly unlikely that Star Trek could gross at least $100 million by Monday morning. Then again, without the appeal of humpback whales and a modern day setting…

Let’s see what the other bloggers have to say after the jump:

• S.T. VanAirsdale at Movieline sarcastically addresses why this movie shouldn’t, in theory, break any records:
  

  You know you’ll see Trek, just like a few million others who couldn’t care less about the franchise that preceded it and at whose altar a nation of fanboys worships daily. You know you’ll brave the crowds, you’ll sit through the applause, you’ll endure the literal black holes in the plot, and you’ll walk out and forget about it within hours. Why bother? Because phenomena are fun, and you know you won’t regret it.

• As of this posting, a poll at Cinematical shows that a majority of readers expect the movie to earn $82 million or less. In the accompanying post, Peter Martin compares the zeitgeist to that of a certain other fanboy blockbuster:
  

  heavy-duty advance online ticket sales were also reported for the R-rated Watchmen, which “underperformed estimates” by drawing (only) $55 million.

  Of course, Star Trek is rated PG-13, and is shorter than Watchmen’s 163-minute running time.

• Nikki Finke at Deadline Hollywood Daily isn’t buying the Watchmen comparisons either:
  

  But there are still cautionary words around Hollywood that Star Trek could still wind up the next Watchmen (i.e. disappointing) because of the built-in fan base, the big presales, the Imax heat. I don’t get such talk. Way different movies, especially with JJ Abrams’ reboot garnering all those critical raves.

• Casey Seijas at MTV Movies Blog doesn’t think critical acclaim is a guarantee for this movie:
  

  despite the stellar reviews for the film, guessing how well a reboot will do financially is a crapshoot — pointing towards the arguably lackluster box office pulls of “Batman Begins” and “Casino Royale” ($48M and $40.8M respectively) as examples.

• Andre Dellamorte at CHUD.com also sees a Batman Begins comparison:
  

  Simply put, Star Trek is in the unenviable Batman Begins position of relaunching a franchise that ended by essentially flashing children…As much as the internets may be hyped for the film, we live in a bubble in some ways, and that bubble doesn’t necessarily translate to the outside world….the problem is getting people to leap into a known quantity that has spent the last couple years being shit.

• Steve Mason at Big Hollywood shares his analysis, which is dependent on today’s numbers:
  

  Now the question is, “How high will The Enterprise fly on its opening day?” Seems like $20M is a lock, but it could be bigger. If the movie does $20M today, the 4-day should be $63M-$65M. $22M or better should send this spectacularly-reviewed blockbuster past $70M. If the day is $25M or better, the number for the opening 4 days could start with an 8.

• Brad Brevet at RopeofSilicon isn’t worried about the opening weekend, because the movie should have legs, at least:
  

  Star Trek is opening on 3,800 screens, including IMAX, and currently holds a 96% rating at Rotten Tomatoes. No matter what this weekend’s numbers end up being I expect this one to do well for a while thanks to strong word-of-mouth.

• Rob Bricken at Topless Robot is already looking past this old news called Star Trek in the direction of Terminator: Salvation:
  

  Look, I know you guys have Star Trek on the brain today, but try to remember there will likely be another awesome movie coming out in two weeks, and there’s a new, 4-minute trailer for it which should do nothing to dampen your enthusiasm for it. It includes, as far as I can recall, the first footage of Star Trek’s Anton Yelchin (Chekhov) as the young John Connor-babydaddy Kyle Reese, so there is a Trek connection if your insane fandom requires you to do and see nothing but Trek-related media all day.