The hot new meme in Oscar prognostication: what if the two “serious” Best Picture frontrunners split the sane vote, thus clearing a path for Juno to take the year’s top prize with a mere fraction of the Academy’s total support? Scott Feinberg elaborates:

[Juno] is heating up at just the right time. Also, I am presently of the belief that No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood will split the vote of those who feel the need to support a completely ’serious’ film, and that Juno—which might have enough passionate support anyway—would be the most obvious beneficiary…

I believe to this day that Little Miss Sunshine would have won Best Picture last year had Martin Scorsese not been in the Best Director race… Try as they might, No Country backers will not be able to elicit the same sense of obligation among Oscar voters to seize this opportunity to honor the Coens, and so there will be no coattail effect this year—in fact, I think we probably will see a Picture-Director split.

It could happen. But ST Van Airsdale––otherwise known as The Reeler, now also blogging at Vanity Fair’s Little Gold Men awards sub-site––really, really hopes it doesn’t.

…Read more

Although she must be burnt out from Sundance, Anne Thompson put together a nice Oscar nomination analysis on her Risky Business blog.

Here are my main two thoughts about the nominations and her post:

- It’s fascinating that a film like Dreamgirls can get eight nominations, including best actor and best actress, but not get nominated for best picture (or director or writer, for that matter). Each year at this time, when I’m puzzling over the system, I tend to be a bit surprised that it’s not more of a science. Then I remember that falling in love with a person isn’t a science–why should our love for a movie be something calculated? (But, on the other hand, when you compare two best picture nominations–Babel and Letters from Iwo Jima, with seven and four nominations respectively–you have to admit that Babel seems a more likely and deserving pick. Sure makes it seem kind of mathematical.)

- Secondly, when I think of this ideal I have–this inexplicable but genuine falling in love with a film–I quickly snap back to this reality: The Oscars, while not a science, are, in many ways, a game. (Yes, I’m well aware love can be a game, too, but the best love isn’t.) In her post today, Anne Thompson references the Clint Eastwood/Warners “Oscar strategy,” and the “trick with foreign films.” Ah, yes. There are strategies and tricks involved. I can’t help it, though. I want to be a purist. I want the film that wins Best Picture to win because, as Thompson says, it is “beloved.”

Our friend Dodd, known as “moviedodd” on Spout, shares with us a bit of what he’s thinking about just hours before the Academy Award nominations are announced. Dodd, who also wrote a Halloween-inspired post for us a few months ago, is a student at Ohio University, where he’s finishing up an M.A. in Film Studies.
- Kristin

It is once again that important time of the year for Hollywood. While complete disasters such as Code Name: The Cleaner and Arthur and the Invisibles are tossed into theaters as part of National January Dumping Season, the best films of 2006 are discussed in great length as top-ten lists are compiled and award ceremonies prepare their nominations. Typically this is a time to compare notes with the Academy and the Golden Globes to see how many of your personal favorites have a shot at the gold. However, this year I must admit to a feeling of dissatisfaction.

The 2006 Golden Globes saw Dreamgirls and Babel taking home the Best Picture trophies. This is not exactly a shocking revelation. Both of these films received mostly favorable reviews from critics. However, when it comes to recalling the highest praised films this year, none of them were even mentioned. Half Nelson? Negative. Children of Men? Not a chance. Pan’s Labyrinth? While nominated for Best Foreign Language Film, it lost out to Clint Eastwood. Emilio Estevez\’s Bobby, though, managed to snag a nomination despite its primarily negative reviews.

The fact of the matter is most of the highly-touted pictures every year fail to get recognized. I am sure it is no coincidence that these happen to be independent films, or those with unconventional storylines and filmmaking techniques. Real gems such as these have become so neglected that they now have their own ceremony, known as The Independent Spirit Awards.

Behind this whole tirade, I am not saying that a film such as Dreamgirls is an undeserving film. Its Detroit-based Motown numbers pulled me in from start to finish, and had my rhythmless limbs moving for an entire week. However, there are plenty of films out there that received higher praise and deserve just as much recognition. As time goes by, it seems as if nominations are more in the vein of the People’s Choice Awards or, (gasp) the MTV Movie Awards.

During this year’s Academy Awards, I will be donning a tuxedo on my sofa, and nodding in mild agreement as Eddie Murphy predictably takes home Oscar gold. However, I will still remember Ellen Page from Hard Candy, Ryan Gosling from Half Nelson, and every other overlooked performer not accepted by the multiplex masses.

(What do you think? Are the Academy Awards and Golden Globes legitimate, or do they need to take a closer look at the year in movies?)