If you’ve been on the Internet at all this past week, you’ve probably heard that Heath Ledger could receive a posthumous Oscar nomination for his performance in The Dark Knight. That’s with emphasis on could, because, after all, anyone could be nominated. Uwe Boll could be nominated for Best Director. He won’t be, but he could be.

And apparently Ledger probably won’t be nominated either. A Reuters article has collected quotes (not new) from the realists commenting on Ledger’s actual Oscar chances, which Los Angeles Times‘ Tom O’Neil says is a “long shot.” He also provided the following expert comment: “That’s how reluctant Oscar voters are to hug the dead. These awards are all about hugs and there’s something creepy about embracing the dead.” Meanwhile Leonard Maltin says the excitement is a “phenomenon of the Internet age” and is merely a “wish-fulfillment rumor.”

Does this mean the Internerds are over-hyping Ledger’s performance and in doing so are maybe actually ruining Ledger’s chance for that posthumous Oscar?

Certainly Terry Gilliam (who thinks the buzz originates from Warner Bros.) would again be grateful to the legions of movie geeks on the web, but is it only the bloggers and the even less respected geeks who are doing the worst damage?

Now that the real promotional appearances and actual reviews are out, it seems that bigger buzz is coming from people who typically receive more respect than those of us who are mere blog writers:

• TDK costars Michael Caine, who has championed for a nomination on such venues as The Tonight Show and The View, and Gary Oldman, who mentioned Oscar in an AP article.
• Filmmaker Kevin Smith, also quoted in the AP article.
• Richard Roeper and Michael Phillips, who called Ledger’s performance “Academy Award caliber” on At the Movies with Ebert and Roeper.
• Roger Ebert himself
• Rolling Stone’s Peter Travers
• Toronto Star critic Peter Howell, who also wants Oscar noms for Best Picture and Best Director and who acknowledges the death=Oscar junk by writing, “Ledger, whose incandescent performance would have attracted serious Oscar talk even without the actor’s untimely passing.”
• Non-”top critic” — but still non-blog critic — Gina Carbone of Seacoast Newspapers, who apologetically yet non-apologetically writes, “I’m tired of the early Oscar talk too, but when you’re talking the best performance in years, if not decades, it’s worth talking about.” She also wants an additional Oscar nom, for Best Makeup.
• Newswires like Reuters and AP
• And even O’Neil, who has at least carried the Oscar buzz into his own writings

For awhile there, I thought so much Oscar buzz would disappointingly influence a nomination for the wrong reasons. Now I think so much Oscar buzz could disappointingly influence a snub for the wrong reasons.

What do you think? Is Ledger’s performance really worthy of an Oscar? Or is it being overhyped? And either way, is it unrealistic or unhelpful (especially when considering the others deserving of posthumous Oscars) to continue championing him so far in advance?

• Skype sponsored a panel at Cannes today called “Buzz Builders,” and it featured a number of Friends of SpoutBlog: Alison Willmore, Michael Jones, Eugene Hernandez and, via the sponsor’s internet based calling system, David Poland. Poland used the panel to announce that he’ll “be very surprised” if “The Hollywood Reporter is still [around] three years from now.” Jeff Wells’ commenters used the opportunity to make cracks at Poland’s track record with predictions.
• Girish calls Robert B. Ray’s The ABCs of Classic Hollywood ” the best new film book I’ve encountered in a long while.” It sounds fascinating: “Ray’s starting point is this quote from Vincente Minnelli: “I feel that a picture that stays with you is made up of a hundred or more hidden things. They’re things that the audience is not conscious of, but that accumulate.” Ray proposes a fascinating and unorthodox method for discovering these hidden things. For each film, he puts together a collection of ‘entries’, one or more for every letter of the alphabet.”
• Andy Horbal’s going all Web 0.5, using his blog to advertise his email list. I’ll let him explain: “…by the time my friends realized [a movie] had opened, I’d already seen it and was on to the next film.In response to this problem I started a mailing list for everyone I knew who was interested that discussed what was new, what looked good, and when I was planning on seeing everything….[A]fter about two months I believe I have a handle on what I’d like these e-mails to look like and I’m going public: you (yes, you!) can now subscribe to ‘The Movie E-Mail.’” Details at Mirror/Stage.

Last night the Tribeca Film Festival announced the winners of their various jury prizes, and you know what that means: it’s time to take another look at the Tribeca 2007 Buzz-O-Meter, my oh-so scientific analysis of the pre-Fest attention derby. Here’s a rundown of which films lived up to the buzz, which films didn’t, and which come-from-behind contenders soiled the betting pool.

Buzz Fulfilled

Taxi to the Dark Side
Pre-Fest Buzz Class: Earth-Shattering
Pre-Fest Odds of Living Up To Buzz: 10:1
What Happened This Week: Alex Gibney’s torture doc won the Festival’s highest documentary prize, despite mixed reviews. At indieWIRE alone, Howard Feinstein criticized the film for covering familiar ground and dismissed it as “slow [and] right for TV”, while Anthony Kauffman allowed for Taxi’s similarities to Sundance hit Ghosts of Abu Ghraib, but said Gibney’s film “nevertheless still gripped me by the throat and never let go.”
What Happens Now: Expect a distribution deal to be announced soon.

A Walk Into The Sea
Pre-Fest Buzz Class: Earth-Shattering
Pre-Fest Odds of Living Up To Buzz: 5:1
What Happened This Week: Esther Robinson’s doc kept up a steady stream of blog buzz throughout the week, ultimately taking the “NY Loves Film” award for best homegrown non-fiction film at the Fest.
What Happens Now: With two major fest prizes in tow (the pic was also named Best Documentary at Berlinale in February), Sea continues its tour of the circuit with screenings at the Seattle International Film Festival later this month.

Still Life
Pre-Fest Buzz Class: Earth-Shattering
Pre-Fest Odds of Living Up To Buzz: 2:1
What Happened This Week: Still Life failed to make a mark on the competition (it lost out in the Narrative feature category to David Volach’s My Father My Lord), but nine months after the film’s premiere at Venice 2006, it finally secured North American distribution.
What Happens Now: New Yorker Films is planning a platform release, beginning this fall in New York City.

Buzz Deflated

Gardener of Eden
Pre-Fest Buzz Class: Earth-Shattering
Pre-Fest Odds of Living Up To Buzz: 20:1
What Happened This Week: To be fair, Eden earned a fair amount of admiration from the difficult-to-impress Tribeca press, especially considering its dubious pedigree (a highly-stylized directorial effort from a flavor-of-the-month TV star? Considering Tribeca’s track record with these sorts of films, it’s amazing anyone bothered reviewing this at all). But while director Kevin Connolly and producer Leonardo DiCaprio head back to Hollywood with their share of friendly ink, Eden failed to make an impression on the Tribeca jury. It’s also, as of this writing, without a distributor.
What Happens Now: Even as bloggers drool over the Eden poster, the pros express skepticism that the film will ever see the mainstream light of day. As Mike Goodrich put it as Screen Daily, “Leonardo DiCaprio’s [involvement] might entice buyers to take the risk, but otherwise there is not enough novelty here to distinguish a low-budget US independent in today’s brutally crowded distribution marketplace, domestically and especially overseas.”

WTF? Buzz Spoiler

The Education of Charlie Banks
Pre-Fest Buzz Class: Not on the Buzz-O-Meter. I made the crucial mistake of underestimating the directing prowess of the former tattoo artist/rapcore sensation/amateur porn star who gave it all for the nookie. My bad!
What Happened This Week: Um…Durst went to Morimoto with a guy from the New York Times while critics dismissed his film as “facile“. Then last night, out of nowhere, Alex Gibney (yeah, that Alex Gibney), Minnie Driver and the rest of the “Made in NY” jury named Charlie Banks as the best locally-produced narrative in the Festival. Weeee!
What Happens Now: One presumes Durst will manage to parlay a combination of this shot of cred and his own F-list celebrity into some sort of distribution deal. But will Tribeca–already a festival desperately in need of an identity fix–*ever* be able to regain its dignity as a showcase for important independent film, after giving The Dude From Limp Bizkit one of their highest salutes?

Film festival buzz is always a tricky thing to wrap one’s head around. Almost without fail, a solid percentage of the movies that everyone seems to be breathlessly hyping the day before a Festival have vanished from the conversation by the time the Jury has issued their verdict. And, if you’ve read any of the passel of Tribeca preview stories to hit the web over the past week, you know that this is a Festival with its own unique issues concerning hype vs. delivery. So with the first big weekend of Bobby DeNiro’s sixth annual legacy-cementer about to begin, here’s an extremely scientific assesment of the films that have attracted the most early Fest buzz. We’ll revisit this list at the end of the Fest, after the awards are announced on May 3.

Earth-Shattering Buzz

Taxi to the Dark Side
World Documentary Competition
This look at the evolution of the United States’ stance on torture has an advantage of buzz-by-association: its director, Alex Gibney, established himself as a documentary brand name first with Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room, and then as exec producer of the recent Sundance hit, No End in Sight. The film itself is coming off a successful college tour, which resulted in quite a bit of blog buzz. Gibney and exec producer Sidney Blumenthal have pumped the film on The Huffington Post and Salon, respectively, and YouTube clips are starting to spread throughout the political blogosphere.
Notable Pullquotes: “Quickly progresses from chilling to alarming to utterly terrifying!” - Village Voice; “Meticulous!” (meant in the most positive sense of the word) - New York Times
Outlets offering an official endorsement: L Magazine, Premiere, Wall Street Journal
Odds of living up to the buzz: 10 to 1

Gardener of Eden
World Narrative Feature Competition
Variety gave Entourage star Kevin Connolly’s directorial feature debut a shot of cred when it placed the drama on its list of films that distributors are most eager to see. The fawning interviews with Connolly and star Lucas Haas are to be expected, but Tribeca is notorous for offering a home to god-awful celebrity vanity projects that vanish after their star-studded afterparties. Could this one possibly find life beyond the red carpet?
Notable pullquotes:“Whip-smart!” - New York Magazine; “Embodies the spirit of Tribeca!” (again, I think this is meant as a compliment) - E! Online
Outlets offering an offical endorsement: NY Daily News, VH1
Odds of living up to the buzz: 20 to 1

Still Life
World Narrative Feature Competition
The winner of the Golden Lion at last year’s Venice Film Festival finally makes it to the States–without a distributor. Jia Zhangke’s follow-up to The World has already been marked with the scarlet “M” (for “masterpiece”) by indieWIRE and The Reeler; though blog anticipation is thus far fairly minimal, although at least one Tribeca detractor names the film as possibly the only reason not to skip the procedings altogether.
Outlets offering an official endorsement: L Magazine, Premiere, TimeOut NY.
Odds of living up to the buzz: 2 to 1

This is England
Spotlight Section
Shane Meadows’ Thatcher-era, coming-of-age/skinhead-becoming flick unexpectedly beat awards season attention hog The Queen at the British Independent Film Awards last fall. Blog buzz is high, but the film’s struggle to secure an audience-friendly rating in its home country has sparked more chatter than the Tribeca premiere. Word on the street is universally positive, but England lost some urgency as a Tribeca must-see when IFC and Netflix announced plans to day-and-date release it in the States this summer.
Notable pullquotes: “Must-see!” - Premiere; “Feels more authentic than many documentaries!” - NY Times
Outlets offering an official endorsement: Village Voice, L Magazine, TimeOut NY
Odds of living up to the buzz: 3 to 1, but it’s going to be hard to quantify: as England’s not competing for Jury prizes and already has distribution here and abroad, its Tribeca run is basically just an early commercial for the July release.

A Walk Into the Sea
World Documentary Competition
Esther Robinson’s first film is a portrait of her uncle, Danny Williams, a sometime Factory fixture and Warhol boyfriend who mysteriously disappeared at the age of 27. The doc popped out of the pack of recent Warhol flicks when it won the Teddy for Best Documentary two months ago at Berlinale. Blog buzz is sizable, although a Technorati search produces many results related to the death of editor Jim Lyon earlier this month. Executive producer/noted doc blogger Doug Block is doing his part to spread the word.
Notable pullquotes: “Fascinating stuff!” - New York Magazine, “An emotionally complex portrait of the Factory moment!” - Village Voice
Outlets offering an official endorsement: L Magazine, Premiere,
Odds of living up to the buzz: 5 to 1

Mid-level Buzz

The Air I Breathe: According to New York Magazine, this Forrest Whittaker-starrer was the most talked-about flick at the Fest’s opening night party–but the crowd that fills the average Tribeca party doesn’t always reflect the crowd in line for morning screenings.

Times and Winds: This Turkish coming-of-age tale will be “the great discovery of the festival,” predicts indieWIRE.

Passio: This silent-film/live performance event is, according to the Village Voice, a “sublime, once-in-a-lifetime experience.”

Honorable Buzz Mentions - films with one rapturous pullquote

Avida: “Wonderfully anarchic!” — indieWIRE
The Killing of John Lennon: “Haunting, intensely impressionistic!” - Village Voice
Hellfighters: “Absorbing and insightful!” - New York Magazine
The Hammer: “Pure comic gold!” - Village Voice