Can the San Diego Comic-Con really make or break a movie? That’s a yearly question asked in the days leading up to the annual geekfest, and few experts ever provide a definite answer. Most people point to weak Con receptions of footage from ultimately failed films like The Spirit and Catwoman as proof of the event’s influence. Meanwhile, there’s the corresponding recognition that positive buzz at the Con for certain niche titles like Twilight and 300 led those films to boffo box office.

But despite the few times Con attendees have been on the same wavelength with the rest of the moviegoing public, it’s important to remember the many movies that had geeks excited in San Diego but which couldn’t garner much interest from mainstream audiences in theatrical release. After the jump, we take a look at ten such movies that buzzed well at Comic-Con only to fizzle at the box office.
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If you’ve been on the Internet at all this past week, you’ve probably heard that Heath Ledger could receive a posthumous Oscar nomination for his performance in The Dark Knight. That’s with emphasis on could, because, after all, anyone could be nominated. Uwe Boll could be nominated for Best Director. He won’t be, but he could be.

And apparently Ledger probably won’t be nominated either. A Reuters article has collected quotes (not new) from the realists commenting on Ledger’s actual Oscar chances, which Los Angeles Times‘ Tom O’Neil says is a “long shot.” He also provided the following expert comment: “That’s how reluctant Oscar voters are to hug the dead. These awards are all about hugs and there’s something creepy about embracing the dead.” Meanwhile Leonard Maltin says the excitement is a “phenomenon of the Internet age” and is merely a “wish-fulfillment rumor.”

Does this mean the Internerds are over-hyping Ledger’s performance and in doing so are maybe actually ruining Ledger’s chance for that posthumous Oscar?

Certainly Terry Gilliam (who thinks the buzz originates from Warner Bros.) would again be grateful to the legions of movie geeks on the web, but is it only the bloggers and the even less respected geeks who are doing the worst damage?

Now that the real promotional appearances and actual reviews are out, it seems that bigger buzz is coming from people who typically receive more respect than those of us who are mere blog writers:

• TDK costars Michael Caine, who has championed for a nomination on such venues as The Tonight Show and The View, and Gary Oldman, who mentioned Oscar in an AP article.
• Filmmaker Kevin Smith, also quoted in the AP article.
• Richard Roeper and Michael Phillips, who called Ledger’s performance “Academy Award caliber” on At the Movies with Ebert and Roeper.
• Roger Ebert himself
• Rolling Stone’s Peter Travers
• Toronto Star critic Peter Howell, who also wants Oscar noms for Best Picture and Best Director and who acknowledges the death=Oscar junk by writing, “Ledger, whose incandescent performance would have attracted serious Oscar talk even without the actor’s untimely passing.”
• Non-”top critic” — but still non-blog critic — Gina Carbone of Seacoast Newspapers, who apologetically yet non-apologetically writes, “I’m tired of the early Oscar talk too, but when you’re talking the best performance in years, if not decades, it’s worth talking about.” She also wants an additional Oscar nom, for Best Makeup.
• Newswires like Reuters and AP
• And even O’Neil, who has at least carried the Oscar buzz into his own writings

For awhile there, I thought so much Oscar buzz would disappointingly influence a nomination for the wrong reasons. Now I think so much Oscar buzz could disappointingly influence a snub for the wrong reasons.

What do you think? Is Ledger’s performance really worthy of an Oscar? Or is it being overhyped? And either way, is it unrealistic or unhelpful (especially when considering the others deserving of posthumous Oscars) to continue championing him so far in advance?

• Let there be a Juno backlash, and let it begin with Modern Fabulosity. And let it continue with Craig Kennedy: “Some folks are even looking at this as being an Oscar contender. I don’t think it is, but when I’m ultimately proven wrong I’ll be the first to admit it. Of course, if I’m right I’ll be shouting it from the rooftops.” Finally, at Reverse Shot, Elbert Ventura concedes that Fox Searchlight has found “this year’s Little Miss Sunshine“–which should not, under any circumstances, be considered a compliment.
• The Reeler talks to Jennifer Venditti about Billy the Kid and, most interestingly, the subject’s complicity in its construction: “He met Heather, and after that he would come up to me on the way home and say, ‘I think tomorrow we should do a scene where we’re holding hands walking down the street.’ Of course we didn’t do those things, but he was going with it in his head and getting into it.”
• Both Alan at Burbanked and Chris at Movie Marketing Madness have complaints about the new one sheet for Be Kind Rewind. I hate to say it, but their fears were confirmed by a friend of SpoutBlog, who called with a four word review on his way out of a Rewind press screening this afternoon: “It sucked my ass.”
• Anybody else wish Kevin Smith would quit crying wolf and just actually stop pillaging his first film for scraps already?

5 films (well, Rick is giving us 4 instead):

- Volver
- Babel
- Little Children
- The Last King of Scotland

4 interesting people:

- Kevin MacDonald (director of The Last King of Scotland–we recorded a podcast with him)
- Natasha (Kevin’s agent–funny and wonderfully opinionated)
- Forest Whitaker (so cool–he also was willing to do a podcast)
- the girls in the gondola (their conversation was…interesting, their allegiance to Family Guy over South Park was…disappointing)

3 favorite spots:

- the pathway along the stream that runs through the town–walking on it was a little retreat
- Baked in Telluride (delicious sandwiches and baked goods)
- the view on the gondola coming back down into Telluride at night (words can’t describe)

2 memorable moments:

- being at the Patrons’ Brunch high in the mountains (beautiful setting, interesting conversation)
- making the nighttime podcast from the gondola

1 way the festival changed you:

- The festival reaffirmed for me that great film isn’t about hype or celebrity. It’s about great stories, artfully told, then consumed and discussed by a community.