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Oscar Predictions: Surprises

Oscar Predictions: Surprises

Christopher Campbell
By Christopher Campbell posted 8 months ago
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Two more days until we find out who wins this year’s Academy Awards! Okay, so the exclamation point is more than forced. It’s been quite awhile since we’ve had even an ounce of excitement about the Oscars. But we mustn’t let predictability get us down. Sure, even the still-uncertain races (Penn vs. Rourke; Winslet vs. Streep; Man on Wire vs. Trouble the Water) are anything but interesting, because the everyman of 2009 couldn’t care less about who gave the year’s better performance and would probably be fine shrugging his shoulders at the TV screen in the event of a tie (or, better yet, irresolution). However, there’s one thing people keep forgetting about the Academy: they’re full of surprises.

So, rather than just go with the easy, “predictable” predictions, we attempted to guess who and what will Crash the Oscars this year with a surprise victory — preferably the kind that adds an “ing” to “upset.” And once again, we’d like to extend the forecasting fun to you. What surprises do you expect and/or hope for? Or, if you’re down with the boring route, what “certain” winners do you truly believe in? And why? The most accurate comments will be reprinted in our final Oscar column on Monday.
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Oscar Predictions: Milk to Win Best Original Screenplay

Oscar Predictions: Milk to Win Best Original Screenplay

Christopher Campbell
By Christopher Campbell posted 9 months ago
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When Milk wins the Oscar for Original Screenplay on February 22, it will be the first biopic to take the award in 26 years. Back then Gandhi faced some stiff competition, including two fellow Best Picture nominees, Tootsie and E.T.: The Extra Terrestrial, as well as An Officer and a Gentleman and Diner. And three of these opposing titles were 1982’s three top grossing films. Gandhi’s main obstacle, though, was not one of the other nominees. It was the difficulty of winning a category that’s typically associated with originality. Plenty of movies based on true stories have been nominated for Original Screenplay, but that “based on” factor can be a drawback, and the Academy tends to favor scripts born completely out of the imagination here.

Unfortunately for Milk, that Academy disfavor has been strong for the past three decades, passing over such ‘nonfiction’ films as The Queen, Shine, Nixon, Braveheart, Bugsy, Hotel Rwanda, Erin Brockovich, The Aviator and Good Night, and Good Luck for more “creative” efforts like Little Miss Sunshine. But this year, the ‘fiction’ films nominated for Original Screenplay are not strong candidates, whether for critical, commercial or political reasons. So fortunately for Milk, screenwriter Dustin Lance Black will partly win the Oscar by default. Not all voters will be choosing Milk in a process of elimination, though. Some will actually see that Black has penned a great “original” biopic and that it is indeed the most deserving of the nominated screenplays.

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Fox Delivers Blunt Blow to Fanboys. Trade Roughage 01/30/09

Christopher Campbell
By Christopher Campbell posted 9 months ago
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  • Fox may frustrate fanboys once again. Though not as sharp a jab as the studio’s Watchmen lawsuit, an option Fox holds on Emily Blunt could potentially keep her from playing Black Widow in Marvel/Paramount’s Iron Man 2 (a role she’s perfect for). Instead, she’ll have to settle on starring opposite Jack Black in Fox’s reimagined adaptation of Gulliver’s Travels.
  • And speaking of disappointing fanboys: as if Scott Derrickson hasn’t already done enough damage to science fiction with his recent remake of The Day the Earth Stood Still, he has just been tapped to direct a single movie combining two of Dan Simmons’ Hyperion novels.
  • 2009 Oscar nominee John Stevenson (Kung Fu Panda) will direct the new He-Man movie, Masters of the Universe. Worse than that, however, is Variety’s reminder that another 2009 nominee, Frank Langella, costarred as Skeletor in the godawful 1987 Masters of the Universe.
  • 2009 Oscar nominee Mickey Rourke (who is also slated for Iron Man 2) will star in a kind of anti-Slumdog Millionaire, an American gangster flick titled Broken Horses, that will be scripted, directed and co-produced by Indian filmmakers. It will be the first Hollywood film from Reliance Entertainment since the company funded the DreamWorks exit from Paramount last year.
  • “Breaking a longstanding taboo, Fox is releasing male-driven pic Taken on Super Bowl weekend,” begins the weekend box office preview from Variety. While I may believe that Taken could indeed be a guy movie, it certainly hasn’t been marketed as such. Anyway, I never understood the concept of a Sunday event keeping men from going to the movies on the Friday and Saturday before. So, if the film does take the top spot this weekend, I for one won’t be too shocked.

Shia Gets a Grisham. Trade Roughage 12/02/08

Christopher Campbell
By Christopher Campbell posted 11 months ago
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  • Shia LaBeouf will take a pause from Transformer movies and unofficial Hitchcock remakes long enough to star in an adaptation of the new John Grisham legal thriller, The Associate. The film will be produced by Lorenzo di Bonaventura, who oversaw past Grisham films The Client and A Time to Kill. Could this mean director Joel Schumacher will also be on board?
  • Peter Farrelly (one of the brothers) and producer Charles Wessler are putting together a comedic portmanteau (or anthology) film with 24 shorts utilizing the writing and/or directing talents of such vets as Brett Ratner, Todd Phillips, Mike Judge and potentially Josh Gordon and Will Speck. The sole Farrelly will direct two installments, but for some reason his brother Bobby is not involved with the project.
  • The media thrashing of Australia includes the film’s reception Down Under, where it isn’t being greeted as the national treasure Fox hoped it’d be. Sure, it didn’t open as big as Mamma Mia! there, but if you look at usual figures for Oz, a US$5.1 million opening is actually pretty good. Besides, did the studio really think Aussies would let it topple Crocodile Dundee for the title of national treasure?
  • Is Kung Fu Panda now the animated feature to beat at the Oscars? The film racked up more than double the amount of Annie Award nominations Wall-E received.
  • Blockbuster stores still exist? I guess the few still out there will now be making some side money through a deal to sell concert tickets via LiveNation. Wait, people still buy concert tickets in person?

Waltz With Bashir’s Oscar Chances: Why Sony Should Push For Animation Nod

Christopher Campbell
By Christopher Campbell posted 1 year ago
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Animated, foreign-language, feature-length documentary. These are all separate categories for the Academy Awards, but they also together describe Ari Folman’s Waltz with Bashir, a film that has received tons of praise and Oscar buzz since premiering at Cannes last May. With such a rare combination and transcendence of genres, Waltz could possibly have been the first film to be nominated for Best Animated Feature, Best Documentary Feature and Best Foreign Language Film. Unfortunately, soon after being announced as Israel’s submission to the foreign category, Folman’s film fell out of contention for the documentary prize after its distributor, Sony Pictures Classics, had to choose between having a qualifying theatrical release and taking part in the New York Film Festival.

But even if Waltz had been deemed technically eligible for the doc category, would the nominating committee have given it much of a chance? According to the Academy’s Documentary Feature rules, the film “may employ partial re-enactment … animation … or other techniques, as long as the emphasis is on fact and not fiction.” Waltz could possibly fall under this guideline, yet the word “partial” is key. Does “mostly” constitute as ‘partial”? It will be interesting to see if another mostly animated documentary, Brett Morgen’s Chicago 10, is deemed ineligible or if it makes the committee’s shortlist of 15 semi-finalists.

Now, left with two categories to be considered for, Waltz will probably only garner one nomination. Here’s why Sony would be foolish not to concentrate on a push for the Animated Feature category:

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Scorsese and De Niro Reunited. Trade Roughage 10/02/08

Christopher Campbell
By Christopher Campbell posted 1 year ago
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The Rock in Space. Trade Roughage 09/18/08

Christopher Campbell
By Christopher Campbell posted 1 year ago
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  • Variety reports that Disney is making a movie based on the Tomorrowland part of its theme parks, yet the trade also notes the studio denies that the project is based on any such thing. Perhaps Disney is afraid the movie, which I’ll simply refer to as “The Rock in Space,” could be more Haunted Mansion than Pirates of the Caribbean?
  • Both Brad Pitt and Rose McGowan are spotlighted in the trades this morning for their oppositional political statements. For Pitt, it’s his donation of $100,000 to the campaign against the proposition to ban same-sex marriage in California. For McGowan, it’s her controversial claim that she’d have joined the IRA had she grown up in Belfast. Yeah, it’s that slow a Hollywood news day, apparently.
  • You knew somebody would eventually officially say it this week, and it unsurprisingly comes from Jeffrey Katzenberg: “Our product is recession resistant.” Also, despite the millions of people who’d argue otherwise: “The single greatest price/value entertainment (option) is at your local movie theater.” Interestingly enough, DreamWorks Animation has a direct-to-DVD Kung Fu Panda sequel coming out soon.

FilmCouch #74 - Kung Fu: Self-Mastery or Self-Discovery?

Kevin Buist
By Kevin Buist posted 1 year ago
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An enjoyable trip to the cinema to see Kung Fu Panda leads to some unexpected ponderings. If kung fu is the epitome of lifelong self-discipline, what does it mean when Jack Black’s fuzzy panda learns the ancient art overnight? In our epic quest to define the true spirit of kung fu, we look at a few new documentaries: Resolved, a fascinating account of competitive high school debate, and Bomb It, which tracks the evolving art of graffiti around the globe.

 
 FilmCouch 74 [28:27m]: Play Now | Download

 (Subscribe to FilmCouch–Spout’s weekly movie podcast–in the iTunes store or to our RSS feed and an episode will download each Friday)

filmcouch-74 

Kung Fu Panda, Resolved, Bomb It

Chickflicks and Chicks Ditch. Trade Roughage 06/08/08

Karina Longworth
By Karina Longworth posted 1 year ago
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  • Kung Fu Panda made $60 million this weekend, 150% of the gross of the weekend’s number two film, You Don’t Mess With the Zohan. Sex and the City dropped 63% to fourth place; power blogger Peter Bart says its because the women of America spent the weekend atoning for the previous ten days of cosmo-steeped empowerment fantasies by bowing to the demands of their boyfriends and children. Which may not bode well for…
  • Chickflicks, a new indie production company headed by Sara Risher and Stephanie Austin, which will produce two or three films per year with women in mind. Risher, hooking the project to the success of Sex and the City, said “the underserved market for intelligent, emotional films with relatable female characters has spoken emphatically.” For one week, at least.
  • Meanwhile, Mongol, one of the very last films to come out under the Picturehouse banner, easily won the specialty race this weekend, with a per screen average of $26,627. Also: Bob Berney is apparently planning on going into business with unidentified pedestrians.

Kung Fu Dog. Clip of the Day

Christopher Campbell
By Christopher Campbell posted 1 year ago
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Back in February, I was almost completely against Kung Fu Panda, the latest from DreamWorks Animation, which opens in theaters tomorrow. And while I’m still not too interested in seeing it, I’ve grown a little more appreciation for Jack Black than I had while writing my review of the trailer. Yeah, he actually made me laugh in that brilliant Tropic Thunder viral video made for the MTV Movie Awards.

Plus, I have to give Kung Fu Panda credit for not being as bad as Karate Dog, a 2004 made-for-TV movie from Bob Clark (A Christmas Story) featuring a talking dog voiced by Chevy Chase and a campy villain played by Oscar-winner Jon Voight. Think it couldn’t be that bad? Check out the fight sequence above. And then check out the trailer, which exposes the ripping off of a classic WB ‘toon (One Froggy Evening) and a classic French play (Cyrano de Bergerac).

Its worst offense, though, is its title. Talk about racism, or at least Orientalism, or simply lazy Hollywood ignorance. Despite being set in Chinatown and having a dog that practices the Chinese martial art of Kung Fu, they went with a title that refers to the Japanese martial art of Karate, which has nothing to do with the movie. But I guess it sounds like The Karate Kid, so it made sense to whomever was in charge.

Kung Fu Panda is looking pretty good all of a sudden. Other videos that make Kung Fu Panda look better than originally thought: this Blockbuster ad; this cute clip featuring one of those confused Kung Fu/Karate Hamster toys; this Kung Fu cow from the movie Kung Pow! Enter the Fist.

Nobody Wants to See Pixar’s Wall-E?

Christopher Campbell
By Christopher Campbell posted 1 year ago
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Of the few thousand moviegoers polled for Fandango’s report on the ten most anticipated summer movies of 2008, I wonder if any were children. Missing from the list, which named Indiana Jones the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull as highest and Sex and the City as lowest (though tied percent-wise with Speed Racer), are such animated tentpoles as DreamWorks’ Kung Fu Panda and Pixar’s Wall-E. The latter is even more shockingly absent due to the consideration that most Pixar films are enjoyed by adults as much as children. It’s definitely one of my top five movies to see this summer, and I’d bet its box office that it outperforms all of the movies listed below the Chronicles of Narnia sequel, Prince Caspian. The only dark horse I can see in there is Speed Racer, which could also be a huge hit with kids. The fact that it’s so far down on Fandango’s list either means really bad things for the Wachowskis or it’s just more reason to believe the poll is ignoring the significance of youth in the market of movie tickets.

Also excluded, though a bit more appropriately so, are less-blockbuster comedian comedies like You Don’t Mess With the Zohan, The Love Guru, Meet Dave, Step Brothers, Tropic Thunder and, surprisingly, Hancock, which is the latest in the traditional July 4th-weekend-released sci-fi/action comedies from Will Smith. Is this a sign that people think it looks like Smith’s worst summer movie since Wild Wild West? Or were those moviegoers that were polled even allowed to make selections other than the ten listed?

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Trailer of the Day: Kung Fu Panda

Christopher Campbell
By Christopher Campbell posted 1 year ago
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I keep forgetting that Kung Fu Panda is a real movie. I mostly relate the computer-animated panda character with his cross-promotional spots for AMC Theatres (memory escapes me again: is it for silencing your cellphone or anti-piracy or something entirely different?). But now that we have this full trailer for the DreamWorks Animation movie, I’m reminded that it is in fact a feature release. Unfortunately, it arrived a few days after the new trailer for The Forbidden Kingdom, and I’ve already laid dibs on my most anticipated martial arts film of 2008. Sure, Kung Fu Panda also features Jackie Chan (or his voice, anyway), here as “Master Monkey”, but when it comes to kung fu beginners, I’ll take Michael Angarano over the voice of Jack Black any day.

I shouldn’t be too harsh on Black (especially after yesterday’s unnecessarily mean-spirited trailer-of-the-day), though I couldn’t help but notice his own personal shtick making its way into the anthropomorphic actions of the cartoon bear when I saw that AMC spot (by the way, AMC, National CineMedia scored Martin Scorsese for a better promo — jealous?). And I simply can’t stand it when any animated film character is made to sound and look and behave like the Hollywood star providing its voice. Nothing will ever be as distracting as Robin William’s overcooked performance as the Genie in Aladdin, but it’s still always annoying. It’s odd that Black ever disliked the idea of Kung Fu Panda. What hammy actor would ever dislike an idea that permitted for such scene-chewing? …Read more