Two more days until we find out who wins this year’s Academy Awards! Okay, so the exclamation point is more than forced. It’s been quite awhile since we’ve had even an ounce of excitement about the Oscars. But we mustn’t let predictability get us down. Sure, even the still-uncertain races (Penn vs. Rourke; Winslet vs. Streep; Man on Wire vs. Trouble the Water) are anything but interesting, because the everyman of 2009 couldn’t care less about who gave the year’s better performance and would probably be fine shrugging his shoulders at the TV screen in the event of a tie (or, better yet, irresolution). However, there’s one thing people keep forgetting about the Academy: they’re full of surprises.

So, rather than just go with the easy, “predictable” predictions, we attempted to guess who and what will Crash the Oscars this year with a surprise victory — preferably the kind that adds an “ing” to “upset.” And once again, we’d like to extend the forecasting fun to you. What surprises do you expect and/or hope for? Or, if you’re down with the boring route, what “certain” winners do you truly believe in? And why? The most accurate comments will be reprinted in our final Oscar column on Monday.
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Yesterday, for the second time in two weeks, In Contention’s Kristopher Tapley confessed to being done with 2008 and noted a bunch of anticipated 2009 films. These aren’t necessarily titles he’s looking forward to seeing, though; it’s basically a preliminary jump on next year’s Oscar season. Because apparently this year’s Academy Awards are all but handed out, the winners properly predicted and expected, and now it’s time to think about what will be up for what in 2010. Those titles Tapley lists are Rob Marshall’s Nine, Peter Jackson’s Lovely Bones, Michael Mann’s Public Enemies, Clint Eastwood’s “Mandela“ (formerly The Human Factor), Richard Curtis’ The Boat That Rocked, Scott Cooper’s Crazy Heart and the latest from Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life), Steven Soderbergh (The Informant), Paul Greengrass (Green Zone), Martin Scorsese (Shutter Island) and James Cameron (Avatar).

Oh, and then Jeff Wells had to go and hint that Spielberg’s Lincoln is likely to arrive by year’s end. What and who else is being foreseen as nominated this time next year? Check out the links after the jump.

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The Golden Globes have been handed out, and the last of Oscar ballots are to be postmarked by today. So, that’s it, the nominations for the 81st Academy Awards are being figured out as we speak, and campaigning is over until the official contenders are announced on January 22. Hopefully a few Academy members took notice of our unlikely last-minute suggestions, but it’s more probable that we’ll be looking at an unsurprising crop of films represented in the major eight categories. As you’ll see after the jump, we predict that two heavily-buzzed supporting performances will be snubbed. Of course you’re likely to disagree with these foreseen omissions. In fact, we welcome all you readers to make your own predictions in the comments section — what you think will be nominated, not what you want nominated. And on Monday, January 19, SpoutBlog will feature a post highlighting the best of these comments and predictions.

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• Penelope Cruz will be honored at this year’s Gotham Awards. Details at the FILMMAKER Blog, where Scott Macaulay also points to an appreciation of Manny Farber written by his former student, filmmaker Barbara Schock.
• Meanwhile, everyone thinks she’s got the Best Supporting Actress Oscar race locked up for her work in Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Even Lawrence Levi, who writes the film itself off as “as blinkered and lazy as the ‘90s films I got sick of,” admits that Cruz and Javier Bardem are “staggeringly funny and sexy” in it.
• Speaking of “too soon!” Oscar predictions: Can Robert Downey Jr win a nomination by acting in a movie about actors who are whores for Oscar nominations?

To be fair: Vicky Cristina Barcelona may not need my defense. Since its debut at Cannes, it has garnered some of the most positive reviews of Woody Allen’s late career. But it’s always with that caveat: it’s the best he’s done for us lately. At this point, it seems like the critical class is expected to disclaim their vitriol or praise, no matter what Allen actually puts on the screen, or which way it swings. Is it good? Well, it’s not as good as Annie Hall, but it’s not bad. Is it bad? Well, it’s not as bad as Anything Else, but it’s not good. As you might have guessed, I think Woody Allen has produced some work over the past 15 years (since the Soon-Yi “scandal”, which more or less dovetailed with the consensus opinion that his “best years” were long behind him) that is worthy of more serious consideration. But even if I didn’t think the movies deserved it, the sheer laziness that the movies seem to inspire in critics would almost give me enough incentive to passionately defend them.

To go micro before going macro: the worst thing that you can say about Vicky Cristina Barcelona is that it’s exceedingly pleasant, that it has the overall effect of a late summer, late afternoon nap. And sure, maybe, if you were inclined, it would be possible to write it all off as soft core bicurious semi-erotica (and full-on bicurious travel erotica). But I sense that Allen––if no one else––earnestly believes he’s doing more, that even in his lightest mode, he’s deeply concerned with the nagging mysteries of human relationships. Might it be creepy-old-man-ism that requires him to ask two beautiful actresses to kiss each other in an attempt to figure these mysteries out? It might be, but Woody Allen’s been a creepy old man since he was 35. To convince me that he’s totally lost it, you’re going to have to come up with better evidence than that.

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It’s funny how out of control a rumor can spin on the web. The Angelina Jolie as Catwoman “news” has to be at the top of the list of most reported unconfirmed rumors ever. And it’s sad that it’s not actually true, because after seeing Jolie in the dominatrix outfit she wears at the beginning of Mr. and Mrs. Smith, I’d be perfectly fine seeing her wear another tight black costume for a possible third Christopher Nolan-directed Batman movie.

But who instead could play the part, if Jolie is indeed not interested, or not even offered the role (or, obviously, if Catwoman is not in the movie, as screenwriter David Goyer has apparently hinted)? One theory says that Maggie Gyllenhaal will return in the follow-up to The Dark Knight, this time donning a catsuit (Graeme at io9 strongly disputes the idea). Another terrible suggestion is to cast the too-cute Zooey Deschanel as the villainess. A far more interesting recommendation, from Catherine Bray, is Tilda Swinton. But I think the character needs to be a little sexier. Plus, I want to dismiss Bray’s idea on the principle that it’s included in the DenOfGeek list, which consists mostly of the usual hot young actress ideas that probably get thrown around for every casting decision like this.

I’m actually shocked that Eva Green wasn’t anyone’s pick, as she’s one of those hot young actresses, and she’s done the “good and bad at the same time” thing in Casino Royale. She was even part of my list until a better candidate edged her out, mostly on the idea that we don’t need to see her replay Vesper Lynd in a Catwoman costume. So, who did make the cut? Check out my 10 favorites, in descending order, after the jump:

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If the mere news of Scarlett Johansson and Penelope Cruz’s lesbian sex scene wasn’t enough to sell you on Woody Allen’s Vicky Cristina Barcelona, this new trailer should seal the deal. The shot of the two actresses kissing goes by quick and is poorly lit, and it’s buried between footage of Javier Bardem separately making out with pretty much the entire female cast, but it’s there. And just to prove it, I’ve given you a sneak peek above.

With Allen’s career relatively flaccid of late, let’s hope for his sake that the steamy scene gives rise to the largest audience the Woodster’s seen in years. Then again, the last time ScarJo attempted to use lesbianism as a marketing tool, it didn’t help The Other Boleyn Girl.

Check out the whole trailer (as long as it’s available) after the jump

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Egotastic has a couple of artfully lit but not particularly safe for work clips from Elegy, which feature a naked Penelope Cruz in bed with Ben Kingsley. I don’t know much about this film––it premiered at Berlinale, where Jurgen Fauth described how Cruz’s “breasts even become a plot point”––but surely, this is the most pre-release attention ever given to anything directed by Isabel Coixet, and that’s probably ultimately a good thing. Still, it points to an alarming trend of indie/art films which position the 65 year-old Kingsley as a sex symbol to much, much younger women. If it takes three examples to make a trend, we can easily find the other two in Kingsley’s next film to hit the American marketplace, Sundance crowd pleaser The Wackness.

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