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Oscar Predictions: Is Kate Winslet a Lock for Best Actress?

Oscar Predictions: Is Kate Winslet a Lock for Best Actress?

Christopher Campbell
By Christopher Campbell posted 10 months ago
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In 10 out of 14 years, the winner of the Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role has gone on to win the Academy Award for Best Actress. If this year marks the 11th such congruence, Meryl Streep will take home the Oscar. Yet there is an odd circumstance with the Academy’s nominations that hurts Streep’s chances. Another one of the Academy’s Best Actress contenders also received a SAG Award Sunday night: Kate Winslet, who won the supporting actress trophy for The Reader. At the Oscars, this role has been recognized as a lead performance, one that is likely a favorite to win.

Yes, it is a strange situation, one that shocked and confused Oscar prognosticators (especially this writer) on Thursday morning. Winslet’s Reader performance was campaigned as a supporting role, and she was recognized as such by the Golden Globes, the Broadcast Film Critics Association, the Chicago Film Critics Association and of course the Screen Actors Guild. A few organizations did nominate her for a lead award for The Reader, though few people take the Satellites seriously, and the BAFTA Awards are different than most in that they permit Winslet to compete against herself in the same category (she is also nominated for Best Leading Actress for Revolutionary Road).

Some now believe the Academy’s deviation will in fact cost Winslet the Oscar she could have won in the supporting field. Either voters will be confused about what film she’s nominated for (unless I’m simply less observant than elderly Academy members, which may indeed be the case), or she will now split the majority vote with Streep and thus allow Anne Hathaway or Melissa Leo to slip ahead (Angelina Jolie is believed to have no shot). Another idea is that voters will dismiss Winslet due to doubts over which category the performance belongs in. But since enough members of the Academy made it a point to nominate her as lead actress in the first place, this is hardly a reasonable theory.

…Read more

Hong Kong Erotica to Save 3D. Trade Roughage 01/26/09

Christopher Campbell
By Christopher Campbell posted 10 months ago
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  • While many cinephiles were watching indie films at Sundance and celebrating the nominations of little-seen Oscar-hopefuls, regular moviegoers were buying tickets to Paul Blart: Mall Cop, which topped the box office for a second weekend in a row. With 10-day earnings at $65 million, the comedy has already outgrossed Best Picture shoo-in Slumdog Millionaire. Of course, nearly all major Oscar contenders did at least see a boost in box office following the announcement of nominees (Doubt being the exclusion).
  • Was anyone else watching the SAG Awards last night and wishing it would turn into a death match, or at least a debate? Well, Variety has a multitude of backstage quotes from actors from both sides of the infighting union. And of course there’s the onstage taboo-breaking prophecy of Tina Fey.
  • In an admitted attempt to battle piracy and boost the Hong Kong film industry, producer Stephen Shiu Jr. is making a 3D sequel to the 1991 erotic adventure movie Sex and Zen. Simply titled 3D Sex and Zen, it will apparently be the first 3D erotic film ever made. Perhaps this is just what digital 3D needs to get that much-needed rise in interest.
  • Universal has moved Sacha Baron Cohen’s Bruno from mid-May to mid-July, reportedly to fill a gap left by 2012, which was pushed back to November. Of course, it also won’t hurt Cohen to avoid getting hammered by Angels & Demons.
  • And for those of you who missed the additions to our Sundance deals chart, the films Spread, Moon and Art & Copy were all picked up for distribution over the weekend.

Blatant Self-Promotion: Karina on CNET

Karina Longworth
By Karina Longworth posted 1 year ago
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alecbaldwin.pngThis morning, I called in to CNET’s new podcast, The 404, to talk about Sundance hits (Baghead, Timecrimes) and misses (The Wackness, Downloading Nancy), why the SAG Awards can’t replace The Oscars, and why Alec Baldwin’s looks have declined as his career has resurged (hint: age is only half of it). You can listen here.

Trade Roughage 01/28/08

Karina Longworth
By Karina Longworth posted 1 year ago
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  • Daniel Day-Lewis and Julie Christie continued their winning streaks over the weekend, each picking up the top individual prizes at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. The WGA had issued SAG a waver to allow them to produce a telecast with professional writers, which thus made it cool for stars to show up, which thus created the conditions for this photograph of Angelina Jolie in what appears to be a tie-dyed chiffon sack, thus giving credence to recent rumors that she may be carrying two new doses of Pitt spawn.
  • Of the many “specialty” films which expanded their theater count in hopes of capitalizing on Oscar nominations, only Atonement failed to see a bump in percentage this weekend, with The Savages gaining 2% even as it shed screens. But the real story of weekend in the indie box office realm––which Variety buries at the very bottom of their writeup––is that Cristian Mungiu’s Cannes-winning, Oscar-ignored drama 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days earned $48,176 across just 2 screens.
  • Ben Fritz gets off a nice joke about Sylvester Stallone being an “ancient warrior” in his mass-market box office writeup, but it must be little comfort to the team behind Rambo, which opened in second place behind something I had never heard of called Meet the SpartansCloverfield dropped almost 70% in its second weekend, which makes sense considering the film’s hype peaked six months ago.

Trade Roughage 12/12/07

Karina Longworth
By Karina Longworth posted 1 year ago
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  • Oh, the perils of being an organization built on starfucking: if the Hollywood Foreign Press Association can’t get the WGA to issue a waiver to allow writers to pen lame banter for the Golden Globes, then there’s a strong chance that most stars will refuse to cross the (real or theoretical) picket line to attend the ceremony. No stars=no photo ops=virtually no point in going through with the awards. Variety says the HFPA’s chances at landing a waver look slim, although the WGA just issued a similar pass to the SAG awards.
  • In other awards news: Juno and Into the Wild lead the nominations for the Critics Choice Awards; Guy Maddin’s My Winnipeg, one of my favorite films of this year, and Bruce Greenwood McDonald’s The Tracey Fragments made the Toronto International Film Festival Group’s list of the Top 10 Canadian Films of the Year. Winnipeg will also open the Forum sidebar at the Berlin Film Festival in February. It’s screen alongside Green Porno, a collection of three short films by Isabella Rosselini about the sex lives of insects.
  • This story is days old, but I missed it: a German producer has acquired the remake rights to Fritz Lang’s Metropolis.