Everybody’s talking about how the WGA strike may affect this year’s Sundance marketplace (Variety and Scott Foundas among them), but studios looking to make up for a lack of in-house product with appealing-looking indies may want to think twice before opening the checkbook. It’s easy for buyers to forget that Hollywood still knows nothing about what moviegoers really want, and it’s very easy to waste a whole lot of money bidding on a film that isn’t going to be worth it’s purchase price. This week, the Onion’s A.V. Club features a list of Sundance flops — those movies that were a big deal at the festival yet failed at the box office. It’s probably meant to just be a fun look back at the errs of the marketplace, but really it functions as a warning to this year’s buyers. What they think is the next Napoleon Dynamite could really be the next Tao of Steve (which happens to have sparked a hilarious discussion in the comments section — possibly featuring Donal Logue himself). The Hollywood Reporter and David Carr in the New York Times add to the list by pointing out some of last year’s deals gone bad, specifically those for Joshua and Grace is Gone.

It’s not a matter of whether or not these films were good (I think Tadpole is great, actually) or whether not they could be enjoyed by regular folk (most of them were audience favorites at Sundance, and those audiences included regular folks). I don’t even think it’s a matter of whether or not the distributors knew how to market those films, though in some cases it didn’t even seem like they were trying. Instead it’s a matter of how different the context is at Sundance than it is in the real theatrical market. If you’ve ever been to a public screening at Sundance, you know how excited those regular folk audiences are for anything. You can tell by their praise-filled “questions” during the Q&As. You can tell by the fact that many of them aren’t seeing a lot of films — at least relatively, considering the number of films playing at the fest — and so don’t have good frames of reference.

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